(no subject)

[judith_s]

Comments

[xeger.livejournal.com]

One can only hope.

[turing.livejournal.com]

Polling is a strange and wondrous business... but it's tough to take it *that* seriously, particularly these days. Among the issues:

• polling methodology -- Gallup, for one, frequently uses samples weighted more heavily Republican than voter registration rolls would seem to indicate.
  
• "Likely voter" formulas -- most polling organizations have a special (and secret) algorithm they use to differentiate between merely registered voters, and "likely" voters. Usually it's a series of questions along the lines of "do you ever plan on voting but just find yourself too busy" and "how high a priority is voting", etc. Does that adequately address political fervor, particularly when comparing previous elections to this one?
  
• Cell phones -- polling organizations are not allowed to call cell phones. Given that many people use cell phones as primary, or only, phone lines, that means samples are going to miss an increasingly large population. (Particularly young people.)
  
• New voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts -- more indications of political fervor that frequently cause polls to underestimate a given candidate's strength.
  

Anyway, they're at least somewhat interesting, and decent for identifying trends. But be wary of putting too much stock in them...

[judith-s.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the info. This is more for tracking the info. And all of your caveats appear to favor Bush-voters, so this may mean that the news is better than we can see (we can only hope).

On a semi-related note, we're having a Kerry Party at our house in a week. I'll provide more details as things develop, but we'd love to see a good turnout.

[sinicism.livejournal.com]

One can only hope!

Did you forward date this so you'd see what happened on the 2nd?
Or trying to make this the reality? ;)